Why We're in for a Long, Hard Economic Slog

From the Wall Street Journal Opinion page,

SEPTEMBER 10, 2010

Evidence from 14 U.S. recessions shows that the economy doesn't recover until housing recovers.

By STEVEN GJERSTAD AND VERNON L. SMITH

Our study of all the postwar recessions and the Great Depression leads to the following empirical proposition: If there is no recovery in housing expenditures, confirmed by a recovery in consumer durable goods expenditures, then there is no economic recovery.

See their paper at www.chapman.edu/ESI/wp/Recessions_1929_2007.pdf