Lessons in Tax Incidence

Apparently FAA taxes are temporarily suspended since congress has failed to act on renewing them. And it appears airlines are charging rates as if they were still collecting the tax. Any student of economics will recognize this as an issue of tax incidence. The fact that the price to the consumer remains unchanged, suggests that the incidence of the tax fell entirely on the airlines (suppliers). Rather than being angry this is something to be happy about. It means that consumers weren't harmed by the FAA taxes in the first place, and it also means demand for flying is highly elastic. The quote at the end of the block below suggests this might be true:

Several aviation taxes expired after midnight Friday when Congress failed to reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration, which collects the revenue. The suspended taxes could save passengers 10% to 15% on their ticket prices, but most U.S. carriers have boosted fares to the levels ticket prices would have been with the taxes still in place, allowing the airlines to take in roughly an extra $25 million a day, says Rick Seaney of FareCompare.com.

As of Tuesday, only Spirit and Alaska seemed to be bucking the trend, Seaney says.

Frequent fliers have noticed.

"While I respect any business' right to set prices as they see fit, this is another example of the airline 'gotcha game,'" says Steven Gordon, a sales manager who lives in Virginia Beach. "It is getting to the point that I feel better about buying a used car than an airline ticket."

Two Charts For Anyone Who Thinks Skipping College Is A Good Idea

From a former student: Two Charts For Anyone Who Thinks Skipping College Is A Good Idea

Dan Ariely and Qualtrics

An interesting interview with Dan Ariely in part about his use of surveys. Particularly interesting for students in Behavioral Econ and BUS 230. From the interview:

WHAT ADVICE DO YOU HAVE FOR MARKET RESEARCHERS?


What people do is not what they say. In general, most of our findings suggest that we should not think very highly of focus groups.


I suspect that many market research companies use focus groups because they want a statement to put in a PowerPoint presentation for a client. But the problem is that what people say doesn’t always reflect what they think or, even more important, the reasons for their actions.


SO, THE QUESTION IS, WHAT SHOULD YOU ASK?


You can ask people what they have done, or what they think they will do in the future. They can answer those questions. But, the moment you get into reasons, into why, interpreting their answers as correct becomes much more tricky.


It is also important to ask about categories that are ones which people can accurately quantify. The more concrete your response scale is, the more likely people are to answer your questions in an informative way.


HOW WOULD YOU RECOMMEND RESEARCHERS USE SCALES?


Take the question, “How often have you done X?”


If you create a scale from “very rarely” to “very frequently”, that’s not as useful as offering, “2 times last week” or “3 times last week”.


The more concrete you get, the more people feel inclined to answer accurately and honestly.


ANY MORE ADVICE ON HOW TO USE SCALES?


Often people use a 5-point response scale, but we find most people have an aversion to the extremes. This means that when we use a 5-point scale, effectively we are using a 3-point scale. That makes our sensitivity of our measurement less useful.


I would encourage researchers to think whether people will have that extreme aversion, and if that is the case, to have more levels. A continuous scale with just 2 anchors in the extremes in such cases is ideal.

Econ Major: What is it Worth?

What is the value of an Economics Major? A lot. The full report is here. The report includes all college majors.

The Value of College Education (and Majors)

A grad school pal of mine, Jeff Strohl works at Georgetown University's Center for Education and the Workforce and they just came out with this study reports that:

[a]n analysis of the projected lifetime earnings of 171 college majors provides a clearer picture of what one bachelor's degree means compared to another in the labor market. And the answer can be as much as $3.64 million.

That's the difference between what petroleum engineering majors can expect to earn over a 40-year career ($4.8 million) and what counseling psychology majors could earn ($1.16 million). Even the lowest-paying major beats the $770,000 average earnings of a person who holds only a high school diploma.

And that gender and race matter:
White workers and men fare best, the Georgetown study found. Even in their highest paid major, electrical engineering, blacks earn $12,000 less a year on average than Asians and $22,000 less than whites with the same major. Women tend to hold the majority of degrees in many of the lower-paying fields, such as education. Female chemical engineering majors earn on average $20,000 less a year than male counterparts.
Here's a link to the full study.

What can the Fed do about stagflation?

The NY Times had a nice article about the Fed's lack of options to fight stagflation and the hope the China's economy doesn't sputter and make things worse for the U.S.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/business/economy/29norris.html

FOMC post-meeting press conference

In an effort to be ever-more transparent, Ben Bernanke gave his first ever, of many, press conference. He'll be giving press conferences after every FOMC meeting.

Here is a summary of what he said,

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/27/us-usa-fed-bernanke-highlights-idUSTRE73Q6ZU20110427